Online Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Complex Marine Systems Principles, Modelling and Applications

This book proposes a new approach to dynamic and online risk assessment of automated and autonomous marine systems, taking into account different environmental and operational conditions. The book presents lessons learnt from dynamic positioning incidents and accidents, and discusses the challenges of risk assessment of complex systems.

The book begins by introducing dynamic and online risk assessment, before presenting automated and autonomous marine systems, as well as numerous dynamic positioning incidents. It then discusses human interactions with technology and explores how to quantify human error. Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment and online risk assessment are both considered fully, including case studies with the application of assisting operators in decision making in emergency situations. Finally, areas for future research are suggested.

This practical volume offers tools and methodologies to help operators make better decisions and improve the safety of automated and autonomous marine systems. It provides a guideline for researchers and practitioners to perform dynamic probabilistic and online risk assessment, which also should be applicable to other complex systems outside the marine and maritime domain, such as nuclear power plants, chemical processes, autonomous transport systems, and space shuttles.

Introduction.- Analysis of Incidents.- Human, Organization and Technology Interactions.- Human Factor Quantifications.- Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment.- Online Risk Assessment.- Online Risk Assessment to Assist Decision Making in Emergency Situations.- Case Studies.- Review, Discussion and Conclusion.

Dr Tarannom Parhizkar is a scientist in the B. John Garrick Institute for the Risk Sciences, at University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA). Dr. Parhizkar has worked on modeling of complex systems and performance optimization since 2010. She has an extensive background and experience both in academia and industry, addressing complex challenges encountered in risk assessment and management practices.

Professor emeritus Jan Erik Vinnem has worked with offshore risk assessment since late 1970s in industry, consultancy, research, education and has authored several hundred papers on this topic. He has published “Offshore Risk Assessment (1-4 Ed)” with Springer.