Bayes's Theorem

Bayes's theorem is a tool for assessing how probable evidence makes some hypothesis. The papers in this volume consider the worth and applicability of the theorem. Richard Swinburne sets out the philosophical issues. Elliott Sober argues that there are other criteria for assessing hypotheses. Colin Howson, Philip Dawid and John Earman consider how the theorem can be used in statistical science, in weighing evidence in criminal trials, and in assessing evidence for the occurrence of miracles. David Miller argues for the worth of the probability calculus as a tool for measuring propensities in nature rather than the strength of evidence. The volume ends with the original paper containing the theorem, presented to the Royal Society in 1763.

Richard Swinburne: Introduction; Elliott Sober: Bayesianism - its scopes and limits; Colin Howson: Bayesianism in Statistics; A P Dawid: Bayes's Theorem and Weighing Evidence by Juries; John Earman: Bayes, Hume, Price, and Miracles; David Miller: Propensities May Satisfy Bayes's Theorem; 'An Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances' by Thomas Bayes, presented to the Royal Society by Richard Price. Preceded by a historical introduction by G A Barnard.