Armed Conflict Survey 2021

The Armed Conflict Survey is the annual review of the political, military and humanitarian dimensions of all active conflicts from the International Institute for Strategic Studies. It offers in-depth analysis of the drivers, dynamics and outlook of 34 current armed conflicts along with detailed information on conflict parties and more than 60 full-colour maps and infographics. The Armed Conflict Survey is an essential resource for those involved in security, foreign and humanitarian policymaking, and an indispensable handbook for anyone conducting serious analysis of armed conflict. Key features · Essays on global trends in armed conflict, with a focus on the changing nature of third-party intervention, the long aftermath of armed conflicts, and economic migration and forced displacement in a COVID-19 world. · Overviews of key events and political and military developments from January 2020–February 2021 for each conflict. · Strategic analysis of national and regional drivers and conflict outlooks. · Regional analyses with unique insights into the geopolitical and geo-economic threads linking conflicts across regions and globally. · Expanded information on conflict parties. · The Armed Conflict Global Relevance Indicator (ACGRI), an IISS proprietary indicator that combines measures of incidence and human impact with geopolitical impact to assess the global salience of armed conflicts. · Analysis of the humanitarian, social and economic impact of conflicts. · Conflict-specific trends, strategic implications and prospects for peace. · More than 60 full-colour maps, tables and infographics highlighting key conflict developments and data. · Key statistics on violent events, fatalities, military power, geopolitical salience, refugees and internally displaced persons. · The 2021 Chart of Armed Conflict, presenting information on conflict start dates, typologies and relevant refugee flows, as well as providing a visual overview of each conflict’s geopolitical relevance, looking at 2020 UN Security Council resolutions, multilateral missions and the involvement of third-party countries.

Editor’s Introduction 5Notes on Methodology 11Global Trends 15Interventions in Armed Conflicts:Waning Western Dominance 16The Long Aftermath of Armed Conflicts 22Economic Migration, Forced Displacementand Armed Conflict in a COVID-19 World 29Conflict Reports 351 Americas 36Regional Analysis 36Mexico 42Colombia 54Brazil 64El Salvador 74Honduras 802 Europe and Eurasia 86Regional Analysis 86Ukraine 92Nagorno-Karabakh 1023 Middle East and North Africa 112Regional Analysis 112Turkey 118Syria 126Iraq 138Israel–Palestinian Territories 150Yemen 160Libya 172Egypt 1824 Sub-Saharan Africa 188Regional Analysis 188The Sahel 194Lake Chad Basin 206Central African Republic 216South Sudan 226Ethiopia 236Somalia 246Democratic Republic of the Congo 256Mozambique 268Nigeria 278Cameroon 284Sudan 2925 Asia 300Regional Analysis 300Afghanistan 306Pakistan 318Kashmir 326Myanmar 338India–Northeast 348India–Central (Maoist) 356Thailand 364Philippines (NPA) 370Philippines (ASG & Moro) 378Data Appendix 386Index 394

The International Institute for Strategic Studies is an independent centre for research, information and debate on the problems of conflict, however caused, that have, or potentially have, an important military content. The staff of the Institute is international in composition and IISS work is international in its perspective and reach. The Institute is independent and stresses rigorous fact-based research with a forward-looking policy orientation that can improve wider public understanding of international security problems and influence the development of sounder public policy, and more effective business decisions in the international arena.