The Future of Asian Trade and Growth Economic Development with the Emergence of China

This book presents a comprehensive analysis of current trends of trade and economic growth in Asia, assessing how they are likely to develop in the future. It examines the evolving patterns of Asian economic development with the emergence of China, including since China’s accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001. It is written by experts specialising in economic growth and regional and global trade/investment issues, alongside country specialists who have examined the development path of Asian economies. It discusses the significance of a export-oriented growth strategy on the Asian region, and the likely patterns of intra-regional specialisation given China’s rise. The book examines the degree to which the remarkable growth of China is likely to affect other Asian countries in terms of global market share, and growth prospects. The book explores how the rise of intra-industry trade is affecting patterns of specialisation in the region, and appraises the role of multinational corporations and foreign direct investment. Informed by the latest empirical economic thinking, this book is a rigorous examination of the influence of an emerging economic superpower, and the future for economic growth in Asia. Readers interested in the implications of the rise of China, the effect on the economic development path of the most successful developing nations of our time and the lessons to be heeded from China’s integration with the global economy will find this a thorough yet accessible account of the influence of an emerging economic superpower.

1. Introduction - Linda Yueh Part I: The Emergence of China 2. The China Effect: How the Emergence of China Affects the Global Economy, Export-led Growth Models and Relations with the United States - Linda Yueh 3. China’s Trade Policy after WTO Accession: Focus on China-EU Relations - Fredrik Erixon, Patrick Messerlin, Razeen Sally and Jinghui Wang 4. Vertical Specialization and Intra-industry Trade in China’s Exports, 1992-2003 - Xin-Qiao Ping 5. A Computable General Equilibrium Model of Foreign Direct Investment Productivity Spillovers in China - Adam Blake, Ziliang Deng and Rod Falveya 6. Domestic Investment, Alternative Sources of Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in China - Busakorn Chantasasawat, Kwok-Chiu Fung, Francis Ng and Alan Siu Part II: Impact on the Rest of Asia 7. The Role of China in Asia: Engine, Conduit, or Steamroller? - Jane T. Haltmaier, Shaghil Ahmed, Brahima Coulibaly, Ross Knippenberg, Sylvain Leduc, Mario Marazzi and Beth Anne Wilson 8. Overcoming the Middle Income Trap: Challenges for East Asian High Performers - Kenichi Ohno 9. How ASEAN Fits the Asian and China Emerging Trade Paradigm - Linda Low Part III: Cases Studies 10. The Rise of China: New Openings for Singapore? - Hans C. Blomqvist 11. In the Shadow of China: Integration and Internationalization in Lao PDR - Ari Kokko, Magnus Andersson and Anders Engvall 12. Implications of the Growth of China and India for the Other Asian Giant: Russia - Elena Ianchovichina, Maros Ivanic and Will Martin Part IV: Resultant Global & Regional Trade Patterns 13. Growth and Trade Horizons for Asia: Long-Term Forecasts for Regional Integration - David Roland-Holst, Jean-Pierre Verbiest and Fan Zhai 14. China and the Future of Asian Electronics Trade - Byron Gangnes and Ari Van Assche 15. The Evolution of Product Quality in Trade between China and ASEAN Experience - A.K.M. Azhar, Robert J. R. Elliott and Junting Liu 16. China’s Integration into Global Production Networks and its Implications for Export-led Growth Strategy in Other Countries in the Region - Prema-chandra Athukorala

Linda Yueh is Fellow in Economics at St Edmund Hall, University of Oxford. She is also an associate of the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics, UK.