Risk, Surprises and Black Swans Fundamental Ideas and Concepts in Risk Assessment and Risk Management

Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on. Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as ‘Black Swans’. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them. This book recognises the fundamental issues surrounding risk assessment and risk management to help you to understand and prepare for black swan events. Complete with international examples to illustrate ideas and concepts Integrates risk management and resilience based thinking Suitable for a variety of applications including engineering, finance and security.

1. Introduction, 2. The risk concept, 3. Variation, knowledge, uncertainty, surprises and black swans, 4. Risk assessment, 5.Risk management

Terje Aven has been Professor in Risk Analysis and Risk Management at the University of Stavanger, Norway, since 1992. He is a Principle Researcher at the International Research Institute of Stavanger (IRIS). Previously he was also Professor in Risk Analysis at the University of Oslo and the Norwegian University of Science and Technology. He has many years of experience as a risk analyst and consultantin industry. He is the author of many books and papers in the field, covering both fundamental issues as well as practical risk analysis methods. He has led several large research projects in the area of risk which have received strong international participation.