Pathways to a Hydrogen Future CD-ROM INCLUDED WITH THE HYDROGEN FUTURES SIMULATION MODEL (H2SIM)

Hydrogen may someday fuel our cars and power and heat our homes and businesses and revolutionize the way we use energy. Moving to a hydrogen economy could help reduce our reliance on foreign oil, improve local air quality, and reduce the risk of climate change. Despite the potential of hydrogen, there is no guarantee that the hydrogen economy will happen as the obstacles are considerable and the competing visions are many. Pathways to a Hydrogen Future seeks to untangle the competing visions of a hydrogen economy, explain the trade-offs and obstacles and offer recommendations for a path forward. The results are based on a detailed simulation model developed at Sandia National Laboratories: "The Hydrogen Futures Simulation Model (H2Sim)". The H2Sim is a high-level strategic tool for evaluating the economic and environmental trade-offs of alternative hydrogen production, storage, transport, and end use options in the year 2020. An executive version of H2Sim is included with the book allowing readers to explore the various scenarios discussed. H2Sim's ease of use and its ability to provide answers to these types of questions make it a powerful educational and policy making tool. The model's structure is ideal for exploring "what-if" questions, such as: Can fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) compete economically with current cars if the FCVs are 2.5 times as efficient? Should the hydrogen be produced at fueling stations or at central locations and transported to fueling stations?

Section I: Overview
Chapter 1: The Hydrogen Futures Simulation Model (H2Sim): Pathways to a Hydrogen Future
Interest in the Hydrogen Economy.
Global Energy Demand and Resource Availability.
Energy Security.
Environmental Considerations.
Pathways to a Hydrogen Future.
Centralized vs. Decentralized Hydrogen Production Options.
Hydrogen Futures Simulation Model.

Section II: Why Hydrogen?
Chapter 2: Justifications for Hydrogen.
Growing Energy Consumption.
Fueling the World.
The United States.
Adequacy of Reserves.
Reserve Estimates.
Reserve Distribution.

Chapter 3: Energy Security
Strategic Value of Oil.
Economic Oil Security.
Modeling and Forecasts of Future Oil Price Shocks.
Historic Price Instability.
Current Areas of Instability.
Infrastructure Vulnerability.

Chapter 4: Environmental Concerns
Climate Change.
Other Environmental Concerns.

Section III: On the Road to Hydrogen
Chapter 5: Progress towards a Hydrogen Future
Fuel Cell Cars.
Other Hydrogen Vehicles.
Portable Applications.
Stationary Applications.

Section IV: The Hydrogen Futures Simulation Model (H2Sim)
Chapter 6: Hydrogen Production.
Carbon Capture and Sequestration.
Sensitivity Analysis.
Carbon Emissions.

Chapter 7: Hydrogen Distribution.
Storage.
Transportation.
Hydrogen Distribution.
Sensitivity Analysis.

Chapter 8: End Use.
Vehicles.
Carbon Emissions.
End Use Costs.
Sensitivity Analysis.

Chapter 9: User's Guide
System Requirements.
Starting the Model and Running a Base Case.
Model Operation.
Model Navigation.
Production.
Capital Cost Sensitivity.
Carbon Pathway.
Storage and Delivery.
End Use.

Section V: Conclusion and Discussion
Chapter 10: From Here to There: the Transition to a Hydrogen Future.
A Decentralized Approach to Hydrogen Production for the United States.
A Push from Carbon Markets in the European Union
The Push from Rapidly Developing Countries.