Net Present Value and Risk Modelling for Projects

The Net Present Value (NPV) forecast lies at the heart of the business case on many projects. Martin Hopkinson's guide explains when, why and how NPV models should be built for projects and how this approach can be integrated with the risk management process. NPV models tend to be used during the earliest phases of a project as the business case is being developed. Typically, these are the stages when uncertainty is at its highest and when the opportunities to influence the project's plan are at their greatest. This book shows how project financial forecasting and risk management principles can be used to both improve NPV forecasts and to shape the project solution into one that is risk-robust. The text is sufficiently broad to be practicable for first-time users to employ the methods described. But it also contains insights into the process that are likely to be new to the majority of experienced practitioners. All users should find that the models used in this book will help to provide useful templates for exploiting the techniques that are used.

Preface Chapter 1 Background to Project Net Present Value and Risk Modelling Chapter 2 Three Financial Modelling Techniques Compared: Undiscounted Cash Flows, Project NPV and NPV Risk Modelling Chapter 3 Discount Rates, Internal Rate of Return and Payback Periods Chapter 4 Developing a Net Present Value Model Chapter 5 Project Risk Management: Themes Relevant to NPV Risk Modelling Chapter 6 Building up Detail in a Net Present Value Risk Model Chapter 7 Risk Estimating Appendix Risk Tools

Martin Hopkinson is the Director of Risk Management Capability Limited and has 30 years’ experience as a project manager, project risk specialist and consultant. His experience has been gained across a wide variety of industries and engineering disciplines and includes multi-billion pound projects and programmes. Martin’s previous book The Project Risk Maturity Model, concerns the risk management process and his contributions to Association for Project Management guides such as Directing Change and Sponsoring Change reveal his belief in the importance of project governance and business case development. In this book he brings these subjects together by showing how NPV and risk modelling techniques can be used to optimise projects and support project approval decisions.