Natural Gas and Geopolitics From 1970 to 2040

Expert analysis of the political challenges which may accompany a shift to a gas-fed world.

By most estimates, global consumption of natural gas - a cleaner-burning alternative to coal and oil - will double by 2030. However, in North America, Europe, China, and South and East Asia, which are the areas of highest-expected demand, the projected consumption of gas is expected to far outstrip indigenous supplies. Delivering gas from the world's major reserves to the future demand centres will require a major expansion of inter-regional, cross-border gas transport infrastructures. This book investigates the implications of this shift, utilizing historical case studies as well as advanced economic modelling to examine the interplay between economic and political factors in the development of natural gas resources. The contributors aim to shed light on the political challenges which may accompany a shift to a gas-fed world.

List of figures; List of tables; List of boxes; List of contributors; Foreword James A. Baker III; Acknowledgements; List of acronyms and abbreviations; Part I. Introduction and Context: 1. Introduction to the study Joe Barnes, Mark H. Hayes, Amy M. Jaffe and David G. Victor; Part II. Historical Case Studies: 2. Introduction to the historical case studies: research questions, methods and case selection Mark H. Hayes and David G. Victor; 3. The Transmed and Maghreb projects: gas to Europe from North Africa Mark H. Hayes; 4. Liquefied natural gas from Indonesia: the Arun project Fred von der Mehden and Steven W. Lewis; 5. Bypassing Ukraine: exporting Russian gas to Poland and Germany Nadejda M. Victor and David G. Victor; 6. Natural gas pipelines in the Southern Cone David R. Mares; 7. International gas trade in Central Asia: Turkmenistan, Iran, Russia and Afghanistan Martha Brill Olcott; 8. Liquefied natural gas from Qatar: the Qatargas project Kohei Hashimoto, Jareer Elass and Stacy L. Eller; 9. Liquefied natural gas from Trinidad & Tobago: the Atlantic LNG project Rob Shepherd and James Ball; 10. Politics, markets and the shift to gas: insights from the seven historical case studies Mark H. Hayes and David G. Victor; Part III. International Gas Trade Economics: 11. The Baker Institute World Gas Trade Model Peter Hartley and Kenneth B. Medlock III; 12. Political and economic influences on the future world market for natural gas Peter Hartley and Kenneth B. Medlock III; 13. Market structure in the new gas economy: is cartelization possible? Amy M. Jaffe and Ronald Soligo; Part IV. Implications: 14. Conclusions Amy M. Jaffe, Mark H. Hayes and David G. Victor; Appendix: technical notes Nadejda M. Victor; Index.

Global consumption of natural gas is generally expected to double by 2030. However, in the areas of highest-expected demand, the consumption of gas is expected to far outstrip indigenous supplies. This book explores the political challenges which may accompany a shift to a gas-fed world.

David G. Victor is Director of the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development at Stanford University.
Amy M. Jaffe is Wallace S. Wilson Fellow for Energy Studies at the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy of Rice University.
Mark H. Hayes is a Research Fellow on the Program on Energy and Sustainable Development at Stanford University.