Mathematical Models and Environmental Change Case Studies in Long Term Management

This book demonstrates how mathematical models constructed in system dynamics modelling platforms, such as Vensim, can be used for long-term management of environmental change. It is divided into two sections, with the first dedicated to theory, where the theory of co-evolutionary modelling and its use in the system dynamics model platform is developed. The book takes readers through the steps in the modelling process, different validation tools applicable to these types of models and different growth specification, as well as how to curve fit using numerical methods in Vensim. Section2 comprises of a collection of applied case studies, including fisheries, game theory and wildlife management. The book concludes with lessons from the use of co-evolutionary models for long-term natural resource management. The book will be of great interest to students and scholars of environmental economics, natural resource management, system dynamics, ecological modelling and bioeconomics.

1. Introduction 2. Models of co-evolution 3. Co-evolutionary models and system dynamics modelling 4. Using numerical methods to estimate unknown parameters in co-evolutionary models 5. Co-evolutionary models and rhino management 6. Co-evolutionary models and the prisoner’s dilemma game 7. Co-evolutionary models and oceans governance: the case of the African penguin (Spheniscus demersus) 8. Discussion and conclusions

Douglas J.Crookes is an Associate Professor of Environmental Governance in the School for Public Leadership at Stellenbosch University, South Africa. He has over22 years ofexperience in conducting problem-focused and applied research at the interface between the environment and economics.