Risk/Benefit Analysis in Water Resources Planning and Management

Ronald M. North President Universities Council on Water Resources People sense intuitively that the world in which we live is not free of risk. Every decision, every action, even the refusal to either act or decide involves some element of risk. Perhaps, because we accept relatively low levels of risk in our daily activi­ ties, we tend to minimize the existence of risk and thereby fail to include risk assessment in those decisions and actions which could be improved through a risk assessment process. However, our casual approach to risk assessment seems to stem largely from the diffi­ culties inherent in measuring risk rather than from any lack of cognizance of the existence of risk. This conclusion is evidenced by the many statements in official documents relating to planning and evaluation which suggest that risk assessments should be con­ ducted but do not provide the mechanism for such assessments nor do they encourage their consideration in the decision making process. This conference on Risk/Benefit Analysis in Water Resources Planning and Management is notable because it attempts to identify and evaluate the mechanisms available for risk assessment which might be useful in water resources planning and management efforts. These proceedings bring together the thoughts of professional per­ sons who have struggled with the problems of risk assessment and who have contributed to the refinement of both theoretical and pragmatic solutions for the improvement of risk assessment processes.

Session I: Trade-Offs in Risk/Benefit Analysis.- Opening Remarks and Conference Overview.- Uncertainty: The Water Resources Decision Making Dilemma.- Technological Hazards, Risk, and Society: A Perspective on Risk Analysis Research.- Risk/Benefit Trade-off Analysis in Water Resources Planning.- Session II: Identification and Measurement of Risk Parameters and Objectives.- Minimizing Risk of Flood Loss in the National Flood Insurance Program.- What Kind of Water Will Our Children Drink?.- Session III: Methodologies in (a) Measuring and Quantifying Risk and (b) Risk-Benefit Trade-Off Analysis.- Methodology and Myth.- Risk-Benefit Analysis in a Multiobjective Framework.- Multiobjective Generating Techniques for Risk/Benefit Analysis.- The Risks of Benefit-Cost-Risk Analysis.- Methods for Determining the Value of Model Development in Cost/Benefit/Risk Analysis.- Session IV: Implementing the Risk and Uncertainty Provisions of the Principles and Standards.- Application of Risk and Uncertainty Analysis in the Principles, Standards, and Procedures of the U.S. Water Resources Council.- Risk Analysis Applicable to Water Resources Program and Project Planning and Evaluation.- Risk Assessment from a Congressional Perspective.- Risk Assessment: The Role of Government in a Multiple Objective Framework.- Implementing the Risk and Uncertainty Provisions of the Principles and Standards.- Session V: Societal Preferences for Risk and Safety Assessment and Evaluation.- Rating the Risks.- Risk Assessment: Arid and Semiarid Lands Perspective.- The Value of a Life: What Difference Does It Make?.- On the Value Dependent Role of the Identification Processing and Evaluation of Information in Risk/Benefit Analysis.- Session VI: Panel Discussion.- The Role of Government in Assessing the Acceptability of Risk and the Efficacy of Safety.- Summary, Conclusions, and Recommendations.- List of Participants.