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Risk Analysis in Engineering Techniques, Tools, and Trends




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Dettagli

Genere:Libro
Lingua: Inglese
Editore:

CRC Press

Pubblicazione: 01/2006
Edizione: 1° edizione





Trama

Developed as a guide for practitioners and as a textbook for upper-level courses in risk analysis, Risk Analysis in Engineering presents an engineering approach to probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). It particularly emphasizes methods for comprehensive PRA studies, including techniques for risk management. The book requires no prior knowledge of risk analysis and provides the necessary mathematical and engineering foundations. The text relies heavily on, but is not limited to, examples from the nuclear industry, because that is where PRA techniques were first developed. Since PRA provides a best-estimate approach, the author pays special attention to explaining uncertainty characterization.




Note Editore

Based on the author’s 20 years of teaching, Risk Analysis in Engineering: Techniques, Tools, and Trends presents an engineering approach to probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). It emphasizes methods for comprehensive PRA studies, including techniques for risk management. The author assumes little or no prior knowledge of risk analysis on the part of the student and provides the necessary mathematical and engineering foundations. The text relies heavily on, but is not limited to, examples from the nuclear industry, because that is where PRA techniques were first developed. Since PRA provides a best-estimate approach, the author pays special attention to explaining uncertainty characterization. The book begins with a description of the basic definitions and principles of risk, safety, and performance and presents the elements of risk analysis and their applications in engineering. After highlighting the methods for performing PRAs, the author describes how to assess and measure performance of the building blocks of PRAs, such as reliability of hardware subsystems, structures, components, human actions, and software. He covers methods of characterizing uncertainties and methods for propagating them through the PRA model to estimate uncertainties of the results. The book explores how to identify and rank important and sensitive contributors to the estimated risk using the PRA and performance assessment models. It also includes a description of risk acceptance criteria and the formal methods for making decisions related to risk management options and strategies. The book concludes with a brief review of the main aspects, issues, and methods of risk communication. Drawing on notes, homework problems, and exams from courses he has taught as well as feedback from his students, Professor Modarres provides a from-the-trenches method for teaching risk assessment for engineers. This is a textbook that is easy to use for students and professors alike.




Sommario

Introduction and Basic Definitions Introduction Importance of Risk Analysis Elements and Types of Risk Analysis Risk Assessment Risk Management Risk Communication References Elements of Risk Assessment Types of Risk Assessment Risk, Hazard, Performance and Engineering Risk Assessment Exercises References Probabilistic Risk Assessment Introduction Steps in Concluding a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Strength of PRA Scenario and Logic Modeling, Development and Quantification Modeling of Dependent Failures in Risk Assessment A Simple Example of PRA Exercises Performance Assessment Data and Modeling Introduction Active Hardware Performance Assessment Statistical Data Analysis for Hardware Items Availability as a Measure of Performance for Repairable Hardware Items Classical Parameter Estimation of Distribution Models for Performance Assessment of Hardware Bayesian Parameters Estimation of Distribution Models for Performance Assessment of Hardware Performance of Passive and Some Active Hazard Barriers through Physics and Engineering of Failure Modeling Software Performance Assessment Human Reliability Analysis Expert Opinion in Risk Assessment and Performance Assessment Exercises References Uncertainty Analysis Introduction Types of Uncertainty Measures of Uncertainty Uncertainty Propagation Methods Comparison of Uncertainty Propagation Methods Graphic Representation of Uncertainty Exercises References Identifying, Ranking and Predicting Contributors to Risk Introduction Importance Ranking in Probabilistic Risk Assessment Importance Measures in Success Risk Assessment A Comprehensive Example of Importance Measure Application Consideration of Uncertainties in Importance Measures Used for Risk-Based Ranking Uncertainty Importance Measures Precursor Analysis Exercises References Representation of Risk Values and Risk Acceptances Criteria Introduction Representation of Risk Results Health and Safety Risk Acceptance Criteria Economic Risk and Performance Acceptance Criteria Exercises References Decision Making Techniques Using Risk Information Introduction Economic Methods in Risk Analysis Non-Economic Techniques Exercises Risk Communication Introduction Forms of Communication The Basic Rules of Risk Communication Elements of Effective Risk Communication Characteristics of an Effective Risk Communication Risk Perception Exercises References Appendix A: Basic Reliability Mathematics: Review of Probability and Statistics Appendix B: Statistical Tables










Altre Informazioni

ISBN:

9781574447941

Condizione: Nuovo
Dimensioni: 10 x 7 in Ø 2.00 lb
Formato: Copertina rigida
Illustration Notes:178 b/w images and 131 tables
Pagine Arabe: 424


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