Navigating Strategic Decisions The Power of Sound Analysis and Forecasting

Based on four decades of experience and research, Navigating Strategic Decisions: The Power of Sound Analysis and Forecasting explains how to improve the decision-making process in your organization through the use of better long-term forecasts and decision support. Filled with time-tested methodologies and models, it provides you with the tools to establish the organization, processes, methods, and techniques required for analyzing and forecasting strategic decisions.Describing how to foster the conditions required for forecasts to materialize, this book will help you rank project valuations and select higher value creation projects. It also teaches you how to: Assess the commercial feasibility of large projects Apply sanity checks to forecasts and assess their resource implications Benchmark best-in-class strategic forecasting organizations, processes, and practices Identify project risks and manage project uncertainty Analyze forecasting models and scenarios to determine controllable levers Pinpoint factors needed to ensure that forecasted future states materialize as expected This book provides you with the benefit of the author’s decades of hands-on experience. In this book, John Triantis shares valuable insights on strategic planning, new product development, portfolio management, and business development groups. Describing how to provide world-class support to your corporate, market, and other planning functions, the book provides you with the tools to consistently make improved decisions that are based on hard data, balanced evaluations, well considered scenarios, and sound forecasts.

Introduction Forecast Types and Their Evolution Why Are Good Forecasts and SDF Teams Needed? The Role of SDF Teams and Misconceptions Uniqueness of the Book and Benefits to the Reader Structure of the Book and Discussion Topics Strategic Decision Forecasting Forecaster RelationshipsFocus, Approach, and Methodology Processes and Practices Forecast Ownership and Accountability Organizational Factors Forecast Performance MeasuresExpectations, Analyses, and Functions Communications Skills and Qualifications Knowledge and Project Management The Promise of Strategic Decision Forecasting Definition of SDF What SDF Solutions Are Not Intended for Purpose and Objectives of SDF The Need for a New SDF Paradigm The Focus of SDF Universal SDF Process Components Common Uses of SDF Solutions SDF Team Charter and Structure The Role of Strategic Decision Forecasters The Uniqueness of SDF Benefits and Limitations of SDF A NEW PARADIGM FOR STRATEGIC DECISION FORECASTING SDF Organization Business Definition The Mission of the SDF Team The Vision of the SDF Team SDF Team Principles and Values Project Stakeholders and Functional Links SDF Goals, Objectives, and Strategies Revisited Scope of SDF Team Activities and Support Provided SDF Team Governance Internal and External SDF Networks SDF Project and Knowledge Management SDF Performance Measures Culture, Mindset, Processes, and Principles SDF Team Culture SDF Mindset SDF Approach SDF Processes SDF Principles and Guidelines SDF Analytical Techniques and Tools SDF Analytical Concepts and Aids Anchoring of SDF Analyses and Evaluations SDF Forecasting Due Diligence Forecasting Due Diligence Techniques and Tools SDF Plan and Processes SDF Methods, Systems, and Implements SDF Assessment and Implementation TechniquesForecasting Function Project Management SDF Solutions, Options, and Recommendations SDF Performance Measures SDF Forecast Realization Plan Institutionalizing Learning and Knowledge STRATEGIC DECISION FORECASTING APPLICATIONSCorporate Policy and Strategy Evaluation The Current State and Causes of Failures Particular Needs and ChallengesThe Role of the SDF Team SDF Processes and Techniques Corporate Strategy Evaluation Corporate Policy Evaluation SDF Techniques and ToolsBeneficial Practices and SDF Team Contributions Examples of Useful Practices and Factors SDF Team Contributions New Product Development Current State and Causes of Failures SDF Approach, Processes, and Techniques Forecasting for New Product and Service Development New Technology Development Forecasting SDF Team Analyses and Evaluations Idea, Discovery, and Scoping Stage and Idea and Feasibility Screen Business Case Stage and Go to Development and Testing Gate Develop, Test, and Validate Stage and Go to Launch and Implement Gate Post New Product Launch Review Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions Sound Practices and Success Factors SDF Team Contributions New Market or Business Entry The Current State Special Needs, Issues, and Challenges SDF Approach and Processes SDF Analyses, Evaluations, and Techniques SDF Analyses and Evaluations SDF Techniques and Tools Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions M&A and Joint Venture Projects The Current State M&A and JV Challenges and Issues SDF Approach and Processes SDF Tools and Techniques SDF Analyses and Evaluations Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions Sound Practices and Success FactorsSDF Team Contributions Product and Technology Licensing The Current State and Causes of Failures SDF Approach, Processes, and Evaluations SDF Approach and Processes SDF Analyses and Evaluations SDF Techniques and Tools Quantitative Technological Forecasting Techniques Judgmental Technological Forecasting Techniques Integrative Technological Forecasting TechniquesSuccess Factors and Beneficial Practices Project Success Factors Beneficial Practices Corporate Reorganizations and Turnarounds Current State and Causes of Failures SDF Approach and Techniques SDF Analyses and Evaluations Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions Sound Practices SDF Team Contributions Uncertainty and Risk Management The Current State Unique Issues and Challenges SDF Approach and Techniques SDF Analyses and Evaluations Success Factors and SDF Team Contributions Sound Practices SDF Team Contributions Major Capex and Project Financing Current State Particular Challenges and Issues SDF Approach and Participation SDF Analyses and Evaluations Success Factors and SDF Team Contributions Sound Practices and Success Factors SDF Team Contributions Product Portfolio Management The Current State Particular Issues and Challenges SDF Approach and Processes SDF Analyses and Evaluations SDF Tools and Techniques Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions Sound Practices and Success Factors SDF Team Contributions Negotiations and Investor Relations Support Independent Validation and Verification Negotiations Support Investor Relations SupportSound Practices and SDF Team Contributions Sound Practices and Success Factors SDF Team Contributions Future-State Realization Planning Current State, Issues, and Challenges SDF Approach, Processes, and Tools SDF Analyses and Evaluations Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions Sound Practices and Success Factors SDF Team Contributions Business Cases, Plans, and Operational Targets Current State, Issues, and Challenges SDF Approach and Processes Business Case Support Business Plan Support Target Development Support Sound Practices and SDF Team Contributions Sound Practices and Success Factors SDF Team Contributions IMPLEMENTING STRATEGIC DECISION FORECASTINGBest-in-Class Strategic Forecasting Teams Governance of SDF Teams Forecaster Responsibilities and Qualifications Best-in-Class Attributes and Practices SDF Process and Principles SDF Performance Factors and Measures Success Factors and SDF Team Contributions SDF Organization Implementation ChallengesAttitudes and Organizational Mindset Organizational Politics Broad Scope and Responsibilities Forecast Quality and Ownership of Forecast Organization Knowledge GapsAvailability of Qualified SDF Team MembersOutsourcing of Strategic Decision Forecasts Management and Client Reassignments Resource Constraints and Cost–Benefit Considerations Implementing Processes and Performance MeasuresSummary and Conclusions Conditions for Successful SDF Applications Recurring Themes in Successful Strategic ProjectsConclusions Bibliography Index

John E. Triantis