Land Use Scenarios Environmental Consequences of Development

Any alteration of the natural processes occurring on a piece of land will have expected as well as unanticipated effects, and those effects have little regard for arbitrary human boundaries. Consequently, it is not enough for land managers to consider only how they might maintain the parcels for which they are responsible; they must also anticipate how changes to neighboring lands might impact their properties. Land Use Scenarios: Environmental Consequences of Development demonstrates how the success of local decision making is largely determined by factors that are difficult to control or forecast. It shows the importance of geographic vulnerability analysis, which takes into consideration possible scenarios about how, where, and when future patterns of land use might develop. It points to the consideration of critical uncertainties—those aspects of the future, that while difficult to predict, may have a profound impact on pending decisions. Detailing research supported by the United States Marine Corps, the text presents a study of the region of Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton and Air Station Miramar in California. While this area remains largely un-built, but extensively used, ongoing regional growth is having dramatic impact on the land and must be factored into any decision making. This research— Provides a better understanding of the potential consequences of urban development on native flora and fauna Describes theoretical concerns prompted by scenario-based projections Gives an overview of the history of scenario-based techniques for urban and regional planning Helps define measures for maintaining undeveloped lands in rapidly developing areas In publishing this research, the investigators provide information regarding issues of urban development and possible environmental consequences to stakeholders and jurisdictions whose actions may influence the future of the region. More broadly, the book will aid managers and stakeholders from other areas to engage spatial contingencies toward the goal of developing more resilient landscapes.

Scenario-Based Studies for Landscape Planning, Allan W. ShearerThe Uncertainties of Regional Development and Their Possible Effects on Natural Resources Management, Allan W. Shearer and David A. MouatScenario-Based Studies of Military Installations and Their Regions, Allan W. ShearerThe Regional Context of MCB Camp Pendleton and MCAS Miramar, David A. MouatMapping Existing Conditions, David A. Mouat and Scott D. BassettCritical Uncertainties Which Could Influence Development in the Region, Allan W. ShearerFour Scenarios and Alternative Futures of Regional Change, Allan W. Shearer, Scott D. Bassett, and David A. MouatHydrologic Consequences Associated with the Alternative Futures, Michael W. Binford and Justin A. SaarinenAir Quality Consequences Associated with the Alternative Futures, Alan W. Gertler and Jülide Kahyaoglu-KoracinOverview: Biologic Consequences Associated with the Alternative Futures, Scott D. BassettVegetation, David A. MouatLandscape Ecological Pattern, Scott D. BassettSingle Species Potential Habitat, Scott D. Bassett and Craig W. JohnsonWillowy MonardellaCalifornia SycamoreFairy ShrimpArgentine AntSan Diego Coast Horned LizardRufous-crowned SparrowCalifornia GnatcatcherWestern Snowy PloverSouthwestern Willow FlycatcherLeast Bell’s VireoWestern MeadowlarkGreat Horned OwlCougarSpecies Richness, Scott D. BassettDiscussion and Conclusions, Allan W. Shearer, Scott D. Bassett, David A. Mouat, and Michael W. Binford