Democratic Vulnerability and Autocratic Meddling The "Thucydidean Brink" in Regressive Geopolitical Competition

This book investigates complex regressive dynamics in contemporary Western democracies. They include not only severe polarization in domestic politics, but also efforts by external autocratic powers to co-opt the increasingly digitalized political processes in the West. The discussion on democratic vulnerability and regression has rarely been historically and theoretically reflective. The aim is to fill this relative void by drawing on classical sources to inform about the political anxieties and agitations of our present time as the Western world moves towards new critical elections. The key concept of the analysis, a Thucydidean brink, refers to a critical point where the attraction felt towards an outside geopolitical competitor becomes stronger than the political affinity felt towards one’s domestic political opponent. As political polarization, societal decomposition and the collusive tendencies grow in strength, political factions and political candidates in western societies can be(come) drawn to autocratic actors. Perhaps most alarmingly, the resulting nexus between democracies and autocracies can further intensify mutual regression and form downwards-sloping spirals that are not ultimately under any strategic control. This book draws from the experiences of recent elections in major Western democracies to illustrate the widening and deepening underlying regressive tendency.

1.      Introduction

            Emerging Geo-Gigital Power Practices

            The Thucydidean Brink and Regressive Coupling

            References

2.      The Thucydidean Brink

            From Democracy into Autocracy

            Thucydidean Model of Political Regression

            Stages of Regressive Slide

            Six-Stage regression Scale

            References

3.      Grim Pull of American Democratic Vulnerability

            Pull of State Drama in the US

            Attraction of Drama Internally and Externally

            Modes of Regression and American Political Religion

            Global Appeal

            References

4.      Russian Cyber-enabled Diversions in the West

            Geostrategic Transformation towards Domains

            Russian Showcasing Western Weakness through Cyber

            References

5.      Pattern of Meddling in 2016 US Elections

            The Hacking of the 2016 US Elections

            Destabilizing and InfluencingForeign Policy Debates

            Democratic Vulnerability

            References

6.      Stages of Digitalized regressive Meddling

            Targetting and Timing

            French and German Elections: Downstream and Blowback Effects

            Lessons Learnt

            References

7.      Crowdsourced Meddling and Flow-State

            Crowdsourcing as internal/external interface

            References

8.      Contrast Point: The Chinese Recruitment Web

            LinkedIn as a Chinese Influence Vector

            Power-Political Vulnerability of the Digitalized Public Sphere

            Implications and Counter-Measures

            References

9.      Covid-19 Pandemic Catalyzes Deepening Regressive Trajectories

            Regression Makes Epidemics Worse

            Covid-19 Inevitably Promotes Further Division

            References