Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering

Under the pressure of harsh environmental conditions and natural hazards, large parts of the world population are struggling to maintain their livelihoods. Population growth, increasing land utilization and shrinking natural resources have led to an increasing demand of improved efficiency of existing technologies and the development of new ones. Additionally, growing complexities of societal functionalities andinterdependencies among infrastructures and urban habitats amplify consequences of malfunctions and failures. Malevolence, sustainable developments and climatic changes have more recently been added to the list of challenges. Over the last decades, substantial progress has been made in assessing and quantifying risks. However, with regard to the broader utilization of risk assessment as a means for societal strategic and operational planning, there is still a great need for further development. Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering contains the proceedings of the 11th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP11, Zürich, Switzerland, 1-4 August 2011). The book focuses not only on the more traditional technical issues, but also emphasizes the societal context of the decision making problems including the interaction between stakeholders. This holistic perspective supports the enhanced and sustainable allocation of limited resources for the improvement of safety, environment and economy. The book is of interest to researchers and scientists working in the field of risk and reliability in engineering; to professionals and engineers, including insurance and consulting companies working with natural hazards, design, operation and maintenance of civil engineering and industrial facilities; and to decision makers and professionals in the public sector, including nongovernmental organisations responsible for risk management in the public domain, e.g. building authorities, the health and safety executives, the United Nations and the World Economic Forum.

GS_119 — Applications (1) Fragility curve of sewerage system due to spatial seismic damaged dataS. Nagata & K. Yamamoto A new time-reversal imaging method for active Lamb wave damage monitoring of composite structuresS. Yan, N.Z. Zhao & Binbin He Probabilistic concept for the validation of the effectiveness of countermeasures against early-age cracking in massive concrete structuresM. Krauß Reliability evaluation of pipelines containing stress corrosion cracking defectsW. Zhou & S. Zhang Proportionality of interventions to restore structural safety of existing bridgesE. Brühwiler GS_129 — Applications (2) Scenario-based seismic loss estimation for concrete buildings in the central US J. Bai, M. Hueste & P. Gardoni Application of the Monte-Carlo method to determine the time required for construction projects—Influence of ranges and correlations on probability distribution C. Hofstadler Advances in probability density evolution analysis of nonlinear stochastic systems J. Li, J.B. Chen & W.L. Sun Probability density evolution method and polynomial chaos expansion for nonlinear random vibration analysis Y.B. Peng, J. Li & J.B. Chen Reliability-based stochastic control for structures using magnetorheological dampers J. Li, Z. Mei & J.B. Chen GS_139 — Applications (3) Random response of chain structure with parameter uncertainties B.G. Liu, Y. Pan, Y. Ning & Z. Shen A Bayesian acoustic emission source location algorithm: Extended model T. Schumacher & D. Straub Structural reliability criteria in relation to on-line control schemes B.J. Leira Probabilistic anomaly detection in structural monitoring data using a relevance vector machine T. Saito Assessment of fatigue crack growth by cohesive zone elements P. Beaurepaire & G.I. Schuëller Reliability-based design recommendations for FRP-reinforced concrete beams S.E.C. Ribeiro & S.M.C. Diniz GS_318 — Applications (4) Simulating two-phase microstructures using level-cut filtered poisson fields and genetic algorithms K. Teferra & E.N. Chatzi Variance Reduction Monte Carlo methods for wind turbines M.T. Sichani, S.R.K. Nielsen & P. Thoft-Christensen A computational study of the buffered failure probability in reliability-based design optimization H.G. Basova, R.T. Rockafellar & J.O. Royset Advanced modeling and simulation tools: From surrogates to copulas M. McCullough, A. Kareem, D.K. Kwon & L. Wang A ground motion record selection procedure utilizing a vector-valued intensity measure for optimized incremental dynamic analysisA.I. Theophilou & M.K. Chryssanthopoulos GS_328 — Applications (5) Reliability level of structures designed according to the design codes of the Republic of BelarusDz. Markouski & V. Tur Classification and moral evaluation of uncertainties in engineering modelingC. Murphy, C.E. Harris, Jr. & P. Gardoni Quantitative safety goals—benefits and limitsH.-P. Berg & M. Krauß Evaluating the source of the risks associated with natural events P. Gardoni & C. Murphy Metamodeling of aircraft InfraRed Signature dispersionS. Lefebvre, A. Roblin & G. Durand GS_338 — Applications (6) Practical reliability approach to urban slope stability R. Chowdhury & P. Flentje Reliability-based optimization of maintenance and repair for a system of bridges C.-A. Robelin & S.M. Madanat System-level optimization of maintenance and replacement decisions for road networks A. Medury & S.M. Madanat Probability-based reliability assessment for real-time hybrid simulation C. Chen & W. Pong Probabilistic estimates of scenario loss through a two-stage Monte Carlo approach I. Ioannou & M.K. Chryssanthopoulos MS_332 — Applications and new developments of system reliability assessment (theory) System reliability of soil slopes by Ditlevsen’s bounds J. Zhang, W.H. Tang, L.M. Zhang & H.W. Huang A recursive decomposition algorithm for reliability evaluation of binary systemW. Liu & J. Li Seismic reliability analysis of wind turbine systems considering rotation effectK. Huang, J.B. Chen & J. Li Global reliability of large nonlinear structuresJ.B. Chen, J. Li & J. Xu Structural reliability analysis solved through a SVM-based response surfaceU. Alibrandi & G. Ricciardi Reliability assessment of parallel systems with brittle elementsY.G. Zhao & Z.H. Lu MS_114 — Bayesian networks for engineering risk analysis Risk-based operation and maintenance of offshore wind turbines using Bayesian networksJ.J. Nielsen & J.D. Sørensen On the use of Bayesian networks for Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis N.M. Kuehn, C. Riggelsen & F. Scherbaum Damage assessment of stranding events by means of Bayesian Networks L. Garrè, B.J. Leira, T.-H. Nguyen & J. Amdahl Effect of weather conditions, geography and population density on wildfire occurrence:A Bayesian Network model P. Papakosta & D. Straub Post-earthquake decision-making using influence diagramsM.T. Bensi, A. Der Kiureghian & D. Straub MS_115 — Bridge traffic loading (1) Statistical analyses of Weigh-In-Motion data for bridge live load developmentT.H.T. Chan & T.J. Miao Recent advances in reliability based assessment of highway bridgesA. O’Connor & V. Pakrashi Visualization of live-load probability distribution by Random Number generation and a Reliability Analysis of a bridge girder based on the Traffic Flow ModelO. Yoshida Development of live load model for long span bridgesE.-S. Hwang, H.-M. Koh & S.W. Lee MS_125 — Bridge traffic loading (2) In-situ dynamic behavior of a railway bridge girder under fatigue causing traffic loadingA. Herwig & E. Brühwiler Modelling of highway bridge traffic loading: Some recent advancesB. Enright, C.C. Caprani & E.J. OBrien Truck load modeling and bridge code calibrationG. Fu & J. You GS_113 — Decision analysis Maintenance planning for multi-component systems subject to reliability constraintsR. Faddoul, W. Raphael, A.H. Soubra & A. Chateauneuf Post-earthquake reliability assessment of structures subjected to after-shocks: An application to L’Aquila earthquake, 2009F. Jalayer, D. Asprone, A. Prota & G. Manfredi Supporting decisions on global health and life safety investmentsM.H. Faber & E. Virguez-Rodriguez Defining guidelines for the application of the marginal life saving costs principle for risk regulationK. Fischer, E. Virguez-Rodriguez, M. Sánchez-Silva & M.H. Faber Adaption of option pricing algorithm to real time decision optimization in the face of emerging natural hazardsA. Anders & K. Nishijima MS_116 — Fuzzy analysis and soft computing methods in reliability assessment and optimization (1) Bayesian quantification of inconsistent informationM. Stein & M. Beer Damage assessment of RC slabs using fuzzy pattern recognition with feature selectionH. Furuta, W. Adachi, K. Nakatsu, Y. Nomura & H. Hattori Clustering of multiple system reliability design solutions for decision makingE. Zio & R. Bazzo Reliability assessment via differential evolutionS. Casciati MS_126 — Fuzzy analysis and soft computing methods in reliability assessment and optimization (2) Sensitivity measures for fuzzy numbers based on Artificial Neural NetworksS. Pannier & W. Graf A method for the verified solution of finite element models with uncertain node locationsA.P. Smith, J. Garloff & H. Werkle An approach on soundings for geotechnical site investigation D. Boumezerane, S. Belkacemi & B. Zlender Strong law of large numbers on the Kôpka D-posetsM. Kuková & B. Riecan MS_136 — Fuzzy analysis and soft computing methods in reliability assessment and optimization (3) Application of Cokriging method to structural reliability problemsW. Zhao & W. Wang On predictive densities in fuzzy Bayesian inferenceR. Viertl Robustness based design of structures under consideration of generalized uncertainty modelsJ.-U. Sickert, S. Pannier, W. Graf & M. Kaliske GS_238 — Life-cycle a

Michael Faber, Jochen Koehler, Kazuyoshi Nishijima,