Forecasting Product Liability Claims Epidemiology and Modeling in the Manville Asbestos Case

I write this foreword for two reasons: first, to acknowledge the gratitude of our court system to scientists willing to lend their talents to forensic tasks, and of myself, in particular, for the pathbreaking work of Eric Stallard, Kenneth G. Manton, and Joel E. Cohen in the Manville Asbestos Case; and second, because their work suggests both great strength and utility in their statisti­ cally based design and its limitations in predicting events strongly affected by political and social choices that are difficult to foretell as well as by de­ mographic and epidemiologic factors that can be prophesied with somewhat more confidence - at least in the short term. It is by now almost axiomatic that almost every important litigation in the United States requires experts to help judges and juries arrive at an under­ standing of the case sufficient to permit a sensible resolution within the flexible scope of our rules of law. The Supreme Court has laid down useful rough cri­ teria for the courts in assessing the capability of proffered experts beginning 1 with the Daubert line of cases. It has also allowed the courts to appoint ex­ 2 perts to supplement those designated by the parties. Dr. Joel E. Cohen and Professor Margaret E. Berger were appointed by me in the Manville asbestos cases pursuant to Rule 706 of the Federal Rules of Evidence to help project future claims. Discovery provisions have improved utilization of experts by 3 requiring advance reports and depositions.

1 Overview.- 2 Epidemiology of Asbestos-Related Diseases.- 3 Forecasts Based on Direct Estimates of Exposure.- 4 Forecasts Based on Indirect Estimates of Exposure.- 5 Uncertainty in Forecasts Based on Indirect Estimates.- 6 Updated Forecasts Based on Indirect Estimates of Exposure.- 7 Uncertainty in Updated Forecasts.- 8 Forecasts Based on a Hybrid Model.- 9 Uncertainty in Forecasts Based on a Hybrid Model.- 10 Conclusions and Implications.- References.

 

Kenneth G. Manton, Ph.D. is Research Professor, Research Director, and Director of the Center for Demographic Studies at Duke University, and Medical Research Professor at Duke University Medical Center’s Department of Community and Family Medicine. Dr. Manton is also a Senior Fellow of the Duke University Medical Center’s Center for the Study of Aging and Human Development. His research interests include mathematical models of human aging, mortality, and chronic disease. He was the 1990 recipient of the Mindel C. Sheps Award in Mathematical Demography presented by the Population Association of America; and in 1991 he received the Allied-Signal Inc. Achievement Award in Aging administered by the Johns Hopkins Center on Aging.

Joel E. Cohen, Ph.D., Dr. P.H., is Professor of Population, and Head of the Laboratory of Populations, Rockefeller University. He also is Professor of Populations at Columbia University. His research interests include the demography, ecology, epidemiology, and social organization of human and non-human populations, and related mathematical concepts. In 1981, he was elected Fellow of the MacArthur and Guggeneheim Foundations. He was the 1992 recipient of the Mindel C. Sheps Award in Mathematical Demography presented by the Population Association of America; and in 1994, he received the Distinguished Statistical Ecologist Award at the Sixth International Congress of Ecology.