Drought: Research and Science-Policy Interfacing Research and Science-Policy Interfacing: Proceedings of the International Conference on Drought: Research and Science-Policy Interfacing, Valencia, Sp

Droughts occur in arid and semi-arid areas of the world, but also in humid areas, and can develop over short periods (flash drought) or longer periods (seasons/decades). Even though progress has been made, it remains difficult to adequately characterize, monitor, forecast and manage droughts, due to their multi-faceted nature. Usually, drought does not directly cause fatalities, but a wide range of socio-economic and environmental effects may occur, and, depending on the region, water-and food-related diseases and casualties can be triggered. Europe has regularly been hit hard by drought (e.g. recently Russia), and large portions of USA, Mexico, Brazil, China, India, Central Asia, South Africa, the Great Horn of Africa, or Australia, have been affected by drought. So globally, drought affects more regions, and more people, than other natural hazards. Additionally, climate change projections for many areas indicate that droughts are likely to become more frequent and more severe due to the increased variability of precipitation and temperature, tied in some cases to decreased average precipitation and increased average temperature. Hence, there is an urgent need to improve drought preparedness through measures that reduce vulnerability to drought and the risks they pose, in particular considering the uncertain future. Drought. Research and Science Policy Interfacing includes contributions to the International Conference on DROUGHT: Research and Science-Policy Interfacing (Valencia, Spain, 10-13 March 2015), the final event of the EU FP7 research project DROUGHT-R&SPI (Fostering European Drought Research and Science-Policy Interfacing). The book aims to foster development of drought policies and plans to reduce risk and vulnerability, and to enhance preparedness and resilience. The book addresses the following topics : (1) past, present and future of droughts (natural hazards, identification and characterization, impacts); (2) indicators, monitoring and forecasting (including early warning systems), risk and vulnerability assessment and reduction at different scales, and (3) preparedness and mitigation options (risk and vulnerability perception, water management and governance under drought conditions, design and implementation of drought policies and plans from the local to the regional, national and international levels, research Interfaces with drought policies). Drought. Research and Science Policy Interfacing will be of interest to researchers and professionals in those fields related to drought, such as climatology, meteorology, hydrology, agronomy, ecology, water economy, and water management, as well as to policy makers involved in drought preparedness and mitigation strategies at local, regional, national and international levels.

Foreword Preface Organization Introduction Fostering drought research and science-policy interfacing: Achievements of the DROUGHT-R&SPI project H.A.J. Van Lanen, L.M. Tallaksen, D. Assimacopoulos, K. Stahl, W. Wolters, J. Andreu, S.I. Seneviratne, L. De Stefano, I. Seidl, F.C. Rego, A. Massarutto & E. Garnier Past, present and future of droughts Drought as a natural hazard Characteristics and drivers of drought in Europe—a summary of the DROUGHT-R&SPI project L.M. Tallaksen, J.H. Stagge, K. Stahl, L. Gudmundsson, R. Orth, S.I. Seneviratne, A.F. Van Loon & H.A.J. Van Lanen European historic droughts beyond the modern instrumental records 16th–20th centuries E. Garnier A comprehensive drought climatology for Europe (1950–2013) L. Gudmundsson & S.I. Seneviratne Assessment of past and future drought impacts Impact of drought on the inhabitants of the Cuvelai watershed: A qualitative exploration R. Lütkemeier & S. Liehr Rainy season pattern and impacts on agriculture and water resources in Northeastern Brazil M.S. Sakamoto, A.G. Ferreira, A.C. Costa & E.S. Olivas Modelling of last hypothesis of climate change impacts on water resources in Sierra de las Cabras aquifer (Southern Spain) P. Jiménez-Fernández & P. Jiménez-Gavilán Drought effects on rainfed agriculture using standardized indices: A case study in SE SpainS. Contreras & J.E. Hunink Ex-post evaluation of the socio-economic impacts of drought in some areas in Europe D. Musolino, A. Massarutto & A. de Carli Analysis of Guadalquivir droughts 2004–2012 based on SEEA-W tables M.M. Borrego-Marín, J.M. Perales, A. Posadillo, C. Gutiérrez-Martín & J. Berbel Multi-scalar drought and its impact on crop yield in the Republic of Moldova V. Potopová, C. Boroneant & B. Boincean Climate change and the increase of wildfire risk in the Upper Jucar River Basin, Spain M.A. Pérez-Martín, F. Vinces, P. del-Amo & A. Batán Integration of climate time series and MODIS data as an analysis tool for forest drought detection C. Domingo, X. Pons, J. Cristóbal, M. Ninyerola & B. Wardlow Comparing low moisture availability and relative crop yields on the pan-European scale using the FAO water production function K.J.B. Oude Lenferink, A.F. Van Loon, M.H.J. Van Huijgevoort & H.A.J. Van Lanen Impact of meteorological drought on crop yield on pan-European scale, 1979–2009 L. Gunst, F.C. Rego, S. Dias, C. Bifulco, J.H. Stagge, M. Rocha & H.A.J. Van Lanen Temperature extremes, moisture deficiency and their impacts on dryland agriculture in Gujarat, India N. Bandyopadhyay, C. Bhuiyan & A.K. Saha Analysis of drought episode in Borno State of North-Eastern Nigeria F.C. Okorie, C.E. Ezedike & A.O. Nnaji Drought identification and characterization Using standardized precipitation and runoff indices for the identification of extraordinary drought events in Chile B. Fernández & J. Gironás Application of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in Hawke’s Bay, New Zealand L. Sadeghi & A.Y. Shamseldin On the use of modelled soil moisture for drought assessment over Europe C. Cammalleri, F. Micale & J. Vogt Improving operational drought definitions—taking them to basin scale M. Oertel, F.J. Meza & J. Gironás Evaluation of drought occurrence in springs yields of the Nízke Tatry Mts. D. Vrablíková & M. Fendeková Chronology of drought termination for long records in the Thames catchment S. Parry, C. Prudhomme, R. Wilby & P. Wood Variability and patterns of drought characteristics based on SPEI in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain between 1981 and 2010 Q.F. Wang, J.J. Wu, G.P. Geng, H.K. Zhou & X.Y. Mo Identification and frequency analysis of drought events in the Blanice river catchment (Czech Republic) V. David & T. Davidova Climate change and drought in the South of Carpathian basin and transboundary implications B. Meyer, G. Mezosi, V. Blanka & Zs. Ladanyi Climate change impact on water resources and droughts of AR5 scenarios in the Jucar River, Spain M.A. Pérez-Martín, A. Batán, P. del-Amo & S. Moll Drought indicators, monitoring and forecasting Indicators and monitoring Drought in South-Eastern Europe: Monitoring and management G. Gregoric & A. Sušnik The U.S. Drought Monitor: Evolution and recent achievements M.D. Svoboda Drought monitoring in a transboundary river basin in North America J.A. Breña-Naranjo, A. De Jesús & A. Pedrozo-Acuña Assessment and comparison of drought monitoring using hydrological and meteorological indices—Case study: The ZayandehRud water reservoir, Iran Sh. Paimozd, S. Khajeh & M. Moghaddasi The drought indicator system in the Júcar River Basin Authority T. Ortega Gómez, T. Estrela Monreal & M.A. Pérez-Martín A simple method to estimate irrigation date for soil moisture modeling and agricultural drought monitoring in irrigated regions H.K. Zhou, J.J. Wu, Q.F. Wang, X.Y. Mo, T.J. Lei, G.P. Geng & X.H. Li A preliminary assessment of meteorological and hydrological drought indicators for application to catchments across the UK L.J. Barker, J. Hannaford, C. Svensson & M. Tanguy An approach to monitoring drought events and food security conditions F. Perez, I. Angeluccetti, W. Cámaro & A. Demarchi Evaluation of ensemble SPI forecasts for Ceará, Northeastern Brazil E.A. Canamary, D.S. Reis Jr. & E.S. Martins Water scarcity cost as a drought indicator through hydroeconomic modelling—application to the Jucar River Basin A. Lopez-Nicolas, M. Pulido-Velazquez & Á. Sales-Esteban Early warning systems Improved rainfall-runoff modelling tools for low-flow forecasting: Application to French catchments C. Perrin, M.-H. Ramos, V. Andréassian, P. Nicolle, L. Crochemore & R. Pushpalatha Possibilities on drought forecasting in Croatia L. Kalin, K. Cindric, D. Mihajlovic & B. Matjacic IMPETUS: Improving predictions of drought for user decision-making C. Prudhomme, L. Shaffrey, T. Woollings, C. Jackson, H. Fowler & B. Anderson Developing a framework for drought forecasting and warning: Results of the DEWFORA project M. Werner, S. Vermooten, A. Iglesias, R. Maia, J. Vogt & G. Naumann Enhancing drought Monitoring and Early Warning by linking indicators to impacts J. Hannaford, M. Acreman, K. Stahl, S. Bachmair, M.D. Svoboda, C. Knutson, N.D. Crossman, I.C. Overton & M.J. Colloff El Niño/La Niña events as a tool for regional drought monitoring in Southern South America J.A. Rivera & O.C. Penalba Seasonal hydrologic forecasting under drought conditions in the Upper Jucar River Basin, Spain M.A. Pérez-Martín, M.A. Escudero, P. del-Amo & S. Moll Seasonal forecasts of hydrological drought in the Limpopo basin: Getting the most out of a bouquet of methods M. Seibert & P. Trambauer Climate seasonal forecast and derived indexes for droughts in Ceará, Brazil J.M.R. Pereira, F.C. Vasconcelos Jr., E.S. Martins, D.S. Reis Jr. & A.W.T. Noronha Use of seasonal climate predictions in the water sector—preliminary results from the EUPORIAS project L. Pouget, T. Roldán, M. Gómez, À. Cabello, E. Rodriguez Camino, B. Navascués, J. Voces, P. Comas, F. Pastor, M.C. García Gómez, J.J. Gil, D. Gil & R. Galván Drought risk and vulnerability assessment An impact perspective on pan-European drought sensitivity K. Stahl, I. Kohn, L. De Stefano, L.M. Tallaksen, F.C. Rego, S.I. Seneviratne, J. Andreu & H.A.J. van Lanen Drought vulnerability assessment for different hydrological conditions based on Standardized Runoff Index and Flow Duration Curve in Lithuania E. Stonevicius & G. Stankunavicius Exploring situations of vulnerability to drought from a sectorial perspective: A starting point for regional assessments I. González Tánago, M. Ballesteros, J. Urquijo & L. De Stefano The dynamics of vulnerability to drought from an impact perspective V. Blauhut, K. Stahl & I. Kohn Drought vulnerability assessment and potential adaptation options in the Aegean islands P.M. Stathato